Any and every team in Major League Baseball that cares about winning should be interested in having Luis Castillo on their team. While he’s not a free agent until after next season, he’s arguably the hottest name on the current trade market. Teams (probably rightfully) believe that the Cincinnati Reds will be looking to trade him as he will be a free agent before they are interested in trying to compete again.
Through his first 13 starts this season Castillo has a 2.77 ERA and he also looked great in the All-Star game on Tuesday night. Not that teams will pay any extra for that, but it certainly made Redleg Nation feel good to see. There are a bunch of teams that, at least according to the publicized rumors, are interested in acquiring him. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, Seattle Mariners, New York Mets, San Diego Padres, and Minnesota Twins have all reportedly shown at least some level of interest.
Over at The Athletic, C. Trent Rosecrans asked the beat writers for several contending teams what the team that they cover would offer for Castillo, and then Keith Law weighs in on whether or not that deal makes sense. Some of the offers were better than others, and some of them felt insulting.
On Tuesday evening the 2022 Major League Baseball draft came to an end. The Cincinnati Reds made 22 selections of the three days. Over at RedsMinorLeagues.com we’ve got scouting reports, videos, and stats on the picks if you’re interested in reading up on a bunch of guys who are likely to join the organization in the next week-and-a-half.
The signing deadline for the draft this year in August 1st, so there won’t be much of a wait to see who is signing and who isn’t. The exceptions here are that college seniors and players that attended junior college can sign with the team up to the point next summer in which the draft is held (as long as the junior college players do not enroll and play at a non-junior college school).
The Cincinnati Reds promoted their top prospect to Double-A over the All-Star break. Elly De La Cruz will be moving up to Double-A Chattanooga to join the Lookouts. The shortstop spent the first 73 games of his season with High-A Dayton and tore the cover off of the ball. He exits the league having hit .303/.360/.609 with 14 doubles, 6 triples, 20 home runs, and 28 steals. The switch hitter will join a team that has 2021 1st round pick Matt McLain, who is also a shortstop. McLain is currently on the injured list, but is expected back in the lineup shortly. How the Reds play them both will be interesting to watch the rest of the season in the minors.
Elly De La CruzLuis Castillo
Doug Gray is the owner of RedsMinorLeagues.com, Redleg Nation, and as you guessed it, passionate about the great sport of baseball. He's been writing about baseball since 2006 (contributions formerly at The Athletic and currently at Baseball America). You can keep tabs with him on twitter @dougdirt24.
No real comment here other than Doug isnt suffering from a power outage like our favorite team. Strong content. C Trent article is interesting but mostly disappointing returns. Robert Hassel 3 from SD would be my top target. Game Changing elite lefty OF.
The funny thing about all of those trades made by their teams sports writers, is they trade simulator was always in their favor, some by a lot. We all value our own people way too much. Also it’s a sellers market right now, and pitching wise at least we have the best looking house on the block. Hopefully the Reds don’t make a trade unless the scales tip our way.
I’m not a Keith Law fan but he did give his non-homer analysis of each potential trade. Red Sox with Triston Casas would be another headliner.
Perhaps there’s another player available who hasn’t hit the rumor mills, but if Castillo, Mahle and Montas are the only 3 “playoff” caliber starting pitchers available, this is a “sellers” market for starting pitching with more than a dozen contending teams able to benefit. If that’s the case, the eventual buyer will pay a premium especially given that the Reds control two of the three.
Yeah, those offers in the Athletic article were a whole bunch of meh, with a heaping side of meh.
Agree the only ones even remotely ok would be Boston (Casas is Joey’s replacement and we do not have one anywhere in the pipeline), or SD bc Hassell is a legit 5 tool potential all star.
But – nobody can even remotely expect anything close to that good of a return for the Reds. Why? Because, uhh… the Reds????
I am not sure the Reds will be ready to contend before Castillo retires.
I read the article and had a very negative opinion of most of the offers. Also, I would not trade Senzel right now. GM: Do not waste your time with this article. Great job with the draft.
I guess they’ll allow McClain to return and get in full shape before promoting him to AAA. Time is running up for Barrero to show anything with the bat.
The nice thing about having multiple SS in the pipeline is that they can generally play somewhere else, too given their plus athleticism. That should give them a bit more time.
And the glove,His defense has been awful as well.7 errors in 40+ games
“college seniors and players that attended junior college can sign with the team up to the point next summer in which the draft is held (as long as the junior college players do not enroll and play at a non-junior college school).”
Presumably, this means Cam Collier is bound to the Reds until next year’s draft unless he enrolls and plays at a “non-junior college school”.
Betting odds are he signs before Aug 1, 2022
It certainly doesn’t fit the profile he would not sign sooner rather than later. If he isn’t in the fold sooner rather than later, something about the Reds organization must have scared him off; and, he will not sign with them period except perhaps if they crash their pool to pay him too much to walk away from.
He’ll sign, I’d be shocked if he doesnt. Right now would actually be early for him to sign. I’m sure the Reds are seeing where their other picks fall so they can figure out how much money to give to him, and he’ll patiently wait for maybe more money.
Collier is committed to Louisville. If he doesn’t sign by Aug 1, he’s likely lost unless he decides not to attend Louisville this fall.
Leverage is the name of the game. Collier has it; but, doubt he wants to wait 2 more years after doing what he did to get into this position. Reds have pulled a number of guys out of the fire that were committed and on the brink of going to 4 year schools. Two that come to mind are Sal Romano and Taylor Trammell.
I am in favor of trading Castillo for fair market value. I am not in favor of giving him away. If teams don’t want to pay up for him there are worst things than seeing Luis pitch here for another year.
exactly. i trust more what we would get from a compensatory pick than any prospect we good it in a trade to be honest. at least it would be a player we would be familiar with and have scouted ourselves
Regarding teams that “fit” for a Castillo trade, I have to think Seattle is near the top. They are coming into the break on the long winning streak, and have the longest streak of not making the playoffs, so they absolutely have to be in “win now” mode. They also have a more desperate need for a starter like Castillo than any other contender I can find: after ace Robbie Ray, their No. 2 (Logan Gilbert) is a young guy who’s never thrown more than 135 innings in a season, Nos. 3 and 4 are soft tossers Marco Gonzalez and Chris Flexen (effective enough but not exactly guys you want to go into the postseason relying on), and they don’t really have a No. 5. Castillo would slot in at No. 2, giving them both a much better shot at making the postseason and at advancing once there (and that is of course true for next year as well as this year). Mariners GM DiPoto is both known generally for being an aggressive trader and of course has recently engineered a significant trade with the Reds that is basically working out for both teams (in the sense that Suarez and Winker are helping them win now, and Williamson and Phillips give the Reds a couple of elite arms for the future.
As importantly, they have depth in young OFs that they can trade from, which is exactly what the Reds need. With Rodriguez blowing up, they can consider moving recent ROY Kyle Lewis, who would be a perfect fit for the Reds, a ML ready (in a good way) guy who could settle in as the everyday RF for 3 years without breaking the arbitration bank. They also have Jarred Kelenic, who hasn’t hit in the bigs but is still an elite prospect, and old friend Taylor Trammell, who might make sense for the Reds to bring back back but perhaps more relevantly gives the Mariners depth so that they can consider moving a Lewis or a Kelenic. For this year, with Rodriguez ensconced in CF and Winker in LF, they also have veteran RF Mitch Haniger about to return from injury, and while he’s a free agent after this year I think he’s going to play pretty much every day in RF. Their DH spot is mostly used by Ty France, and infielder who isn’t good anywhere but can really hit, so no extra ABs for the surplus OFs there.
i think the Reds should target both Lewis and Trammell (who can play CF if Senzel never seizes that job, or LF if he does), plus maybe one of their top minor league arms (they have 3 or 4 that would qualify). The Reds could add Brandon Drury, who fits their needs for another infielder who can actually hit (2b has been a real problem), and who is from Oregon so they might think they can extend him on a team friendly deal once he’s there. Lewis and Trammell both come in at around $15 million in future value, with Castillo at around $40 million, and would give the Reds Lewis for 3 years and Trammell for 5 or 6, plus a pitcher for 6+. This seems like a deal that gives both teams exactly what they need, with no complicated contractual issues or anything like that. Makes a whole lot more sense to me than any of the trades mentioned in the Athletic article.
Mariners recently sent George Kirby down to AAA for a tune-up, but he’s a beast and should easily surpass the soft-tossers as a 2 or 3. That doesn’t eliminate the need for a Castillo acquisition, just didn’t want to overlook Kirby. Also, they view Kyle Lewis as a key part of their future, so I do not think he’d be too available. Kelenic, on the other hand would be a nice bat in GABP.
Another plug for any listening to watch the Mariners. They are a very fun team, complete with old friends, Geno, Winker, and Trammell.
I’m not sure there’s a lot of headroom in your picks. Lewis is already 27 and has yet to prove he’s recovered from the knee injury. Trammell, been there, done that. He looks good compared to some of the Reds’ roster, but he hasn’t hit LH’ers in his career, so he’d be another platoon guy. Seems like more upside to Kelenic. Haniger is already 31 so pass. France on the other hand, though 28, does have balanced L/R splits and would make a good everyday player. You may be right, but I think the Reds need to be far more aggressive.
Lewis can compare to Senzel in that his injuries have burned a lot of his controllable time. So, yeah, that’s a non-trade target.
Right team, wrong targets. Forget anyone on their 26-man. They have plenty of MiLB talent, IIRC they were recently or currently the #1 farm system. They may not want to give more arms, but still have position talent.
That, or a 3-team deal to complete packages.
I like Marte,Hancock, Ford, Arroyo, Deloach, Brash and Stroud. So they do have prospects to trade for either Castillo or Mahle.
Agree. Nobody in the majors. Let’s build on the group from De La Cruz down to Cabrera. Fill the minors with high end guys in that geoup.
Hard pass on this one. Agree with the other commentators. Any Castillo trade to Seattle should start with Marte or Ford. I also think Mahle might be a better option for Seattle.
https://www.milb.com/news/the-road-to-the-show-cincinnati-reds-infielder-elly-de-la-cruz
When will he be ready for the Reds? Part of me says “well they need a draw (the Greene model)”. The other part says “the Reds are somewhat slow to promote”. I’m leaning towards the draw and hope he’s ready by the end of spring training 2023. Barrero’s window really seems to be closing fast. If he doesn’t get it together soon, his window of opportunity may be history. He looked good last year. This year not so much, the injury notwithstanding. And as DG wrote earlier, his problems are not typical of recovery for this type of injury. So, who knows? The Reds’ FO just need to get together. For example, I saw a report on the teams that had fired their managers this year, all were performing better with the new manager. Haven’t run the numbers to confirm that myself. But it’s worth a shot.
Eric Davis is quoted in the article and sounds like they will fast forward things. Something is off with Barrero 2022 and perhaps its hamate complications. All players have bad years. Senzel and Barrero were 2 cant miss guys who are missing their trajectories. If you put Senzel/Barrero on your kids printed out growth chart…they are way below the dotted line from 3 years ago and you would be concerned.
For a draft and develop small market team….you cant miss on the #2 overall pick and a $6 million international singing. Greene BTW is below his growth chart as well.
He is but Greene’s development was secondary to the Reds. Folks in the stadium was the driver, IMO.
Old School, you may remember Cliff Cook.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cookcl01.shtml
Four straight years of averaging 30 HR and 100 RBI in 1958-59-60-52 minors.
Four straight years of cups of coffee with Reds in 1959-60-61-62. Off to three NY Mets for Don Zimmer.
Can’t miss (Cook) he did.
@ old-timer. Dont give Krall any ideas. Cook might have a little pop still in that bat and adds depth at 3b/OF.
Another team not mentioned above that there are rumors out there about acquiring pitching is the Atlanta Braves. They need to defend their title???
But who do they have in their farm system that would be worth trading Castillo?
Castillo for Strider, Tarnok, Grissom and Shuster. If they balk on Strider, Muller and Dodd added instead.
Michael Harris who is a rookie who plays CF. Need 1 additional piece but that is certainly a strong start. Maybe Strider as an add on. Remember the Braves traded 3 of their top 5 prospects for Matt Olsen. Braves are not afraid to trade young talent.
I don’t see the Braves trading their starting CF, who has generated 2.2 bWAR in his first 51 games in the majors. To put that in perspective, he’s producing at the same level similar to Allstars Austin Riley and Danby Swanson. But if they are willing, Castillo will be an Atlanta Brave for sure.
Don’t recall the names of the Braves guys but I believe Keith Law, the judge of offers for the article, thought theirs was one of the ones which simply did not cut the mustard.
The Braves “offer” BTW was 2 left handed pitching prospects. A number of the teams were leading with pitchers, several of whom were questioned whether they would even stick as starters or eventually become relievers. The “offers” were crafted by “The Athletic” beat people covering the team. Do these guys/ gals understand starting pitching is a Reds area of strength; and was said by Law, the Reds aren’t going to deal Castillo for a couple of bullpens arms.
I got the impression that some of the writers took the approach their team would be doing the Reds a favor to trade with them. As you stated above WRT Collier, negotiating is all about leverage. The Reds have two of the top 3 available starters who can actually help a team get to the playoffs and then pitch in the playoffs. They have significant leverage.
Nope. They’d have to use some young ML’ers to add to the package.
Too bad the C. Trent article is behind a paywall. As for Mr. Law, his history indicates disdain for our club, so I take anything he says with a shaker full of salt. He knows baseball (I’ll grant him that), but there is a chip on his shoulder where the Reds are concerned, at least from what I’ve observed.
I’m in the camp that says LC won’t make another start in a Reds uniform.
Please lets not throw Barrero under the bus just yet.Less then 80 at bats in the majors isn’t cause to do so nor is his struggles coming back from injury with what 200 at bats.If he were to walk out on the field at GABP tomorrow most would say WOW look at this dude and then after watching him field,throw and run most would say he is by far the best athlete on the Reds.Of course I don’t see why the Reds just don’t release him since we have such a good infield with all great arms,range and speed.Heck their are some that think this kid with his arm and speed fits best in the outfield.Of course we are so well stocked out there with elder Tommy Pham and Tyler Naquin soon to be 32 and a free agent.Heck I agree Barrero is just blocked by so many good players we should just release him tomorrow and watch another team give him the keys to short in the majors.At 25 years old and under a 100 at bats he is truly not going to help this juggernaut of a team now or in the future.Lord I hope Cruz doesn’t struggle or maybe we can get more if we trade him and Barrero in the same package.If the Reds will just move on from the old guys and let these younger players play the rest of this year and next but who am I kidding Bell won’t do that.
+1000 – Roger, you may be even more cynical than I
Just tired of the silly Red management.I know Barrero isn’t hitting right now but when he was last year he got a cup of coffee and then gets hurt and thats where we are at.Prospects are prospects but there are a few teams out there with deep pockets that will pony up for Castillo with as close as their is to sure fire can’t miss prospects.Turn the clock back to last year when Barrero was raking in AAA,would you take him and Senzel after his rookie season for Castillo.You bet you would and never look back.Nobody though Castillo would be Castillo either.You just have to let players play to see and that always been my problem with Bob and Bell.Bob wants a return on Moose and Joey and Farmer and Pham and Minor. Bell loves vets and will play them over rookies if he has them.I just want the team to win and it ain’t happening with these guys now or next year.At the same time what we do have as prospects get a year older.India was ROY only because of injuries to others,TySteve gets to play because Tucker got to expensive.Both were good enough to get a shot but no way it happens in other way then it happened.Now we see them as the new core and it was by chance.Bob ain’t going away and neither is Bell so what we get for Castillo will not do anything except go for coffee and doughnuts.
I mean people do same thing with Senzel. So why not. Burrero can’t hit minor league pitching let alone mlb pitching.
Heck some even suggest Hendrick is a bust at age 22. So again why not.
Hendrick has a 40% K rate in A ball.
@Old School, I don’t care dude is 21 years of age. Give him time to develop. Good Grief
Thank goodness for a little common sense viz Barrero.
This forum will throw contracts at journeyman like Farmer and Drury and have a five minute patience limit with young talents like Barrero….who the Reds spent muy millions on.
Some hotheads here are calling him a “bust” or an “F” or whatever. Because he’s 25 or Pete Rose is 81 or whatever.
Like Roger G said: Are the Reds so full of talent that they can just toss a promising “prospect” aside and then get everyone’s knickers all twisted up speculating about trading for “Top 25” or “Top 50” prospects for a first line pitcher like Louie Castle.
I think the prospect of bundling DLCruz and Barrero up and trading for ‘prospects’ is hilarious.
Just what this board needs.
In all seriousness, I’d call up Barrero and let him start. That makes more sense to me than running Farmer out there everyday. It’s not like the Reds are winning now.
I wouldn’t. Great way to destroy his confidence.
I am ambivalent about bringing Barrero up until he gets on a bit of a roll at AAA. There is no question about his defense. Nothing to prove there. Force feeding him on offense could just deepen his funk, doing him more harm than good.
Come on, you guys know Zinter will turn him around in a couple of days. Have some faith in the coaching staff. Clearly, they’ve earned it.
I’d only call Barrero up after his bat heats up. It’s much better to get the call up while on a heater. I’m not talking about a month of sustained success, but at least a week +.
Hitting .197 with 78 strikeouts 7 errors in 45 games yeah lets bring him up
Barrero has a future. Farmer doesn’t. Start playing for the future. Not the past.
so you bring up a guy who can’t hit and having defensive issues ? Beyond ridiculous
Unfortunately, his performance doesn’t warrant promotion. Looking at his stats, he’s really not showing any progress over the last two months. Hopefully, the All-star break has provided an opportunity to mentally reset and get back to the level he was last summer.
By your argument, should Votto be playing? His defense isn’t much these days. And his hitting? Not terrific either. In fact, today’s lineup is out with JV once again in the #4 slot despite his lousy performance thus far this year. I’m sure in the second half he’ll hit .500 with 30 HRs. Is Barrero performing? Nope. But leaving him there to grind isn’t working either. BTW, the Phillies were 22-29 when they fired Girardi. They are 49-43 now – 27-14 since the manager change. Management matters. The Reds don’t have any.
What we get for Castillo could tell us a lot about what the Reds are feeling about Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India. If they trade Castillo for more Low A talent, then we are probably looking at a very, very long rebuild that will essentially waste India and Stephenson’s years here. If we get some young MLBers or almost ready MLBers, that may tell us they will try to win soon around India and TySteve, Or Nick Krall may be such a doof that he has no plan whatsoever and it tells us absolutely nothing.
The fact that India and Stephenson have not yet been extended scares me. We’ve already wasted two seasons of them. 2023, unless some miracle happens, will be a third. That leaves only three seasons of control left (2024-2026) before free agency. With Boras as India’s agent, you know no extension is coming. The players will also be arbitration-eligible in those years, potentially bumping their salaries up above levels Castellini wants to pay.
I know Castillo has everyone’s attention, and for good reason, but I’m more interested to see who else can be moved and for what. The movement of Drury, Naquin, and to a lesser extent, Farmer, tell me more about the FO’s competency for planning than anything else. Drury and Naquin are must trades in my eyes; this season is lost and they will leave for nothing and neither will be part of the next good Reds team.
If Aug 2 comes and goes, and Castillo is still in a Reds uniform, that to me would be better than taking a lousy return for high risk prospects or players who are blocked. But the impending FA’s or aging players must go for whatever can be had.
I agree. I too want to see them move ANY tradable assets. If they don’t trade at least two of Drury, Farmer, Pham or Naquin I’ll be very disappointed. Any RP that has some value, the same. This is the year to empty the trade ammo and pump up the AAA/AA/A+ cupboards for a serious 2023-2029 run of success. Capitalize on lucky FA gets. This is what the Braves do/did so well in years they weren’t quite real contenders. Seems like they traded two one-year FA signings at ASB each season for a solid prospect.
Watching the All-Star Game this year was more depressing than anything as a Reds fan. With our only representative almost certainly going to be traded in the coming days (as well as Drury, Mahle, and others), the final two months of the season are likely to be nearly as ugly as April. The Reds have become nothing more than another farm team for rich clubs. Every time the team gets a good, talented player, they get traded for spare parts (prospects) that may or may not pan out years down the road. Aside from India and Stephenson, two first round draft picks, who was the last hitter the Reds successfully developed? Winker? And before that, Frazier in 2011? The Reds desperately need De La Cruz to be a star and Senzel to continue to stay healthy and increase his power. Furthermore, they absolutely must focus on getting close to Major League-ready top hitting prospects back in the Mahle/Castillo deals. Players that will be called up by Opening Day 2024 at the latest.
Kinda like KC was to the Yankees in the 50’s and 60’s
When Bob Castellini talked extensively about winning and having a winning organization, who knew he was really talking about “another” organization and not really the Reds? As of now, the Reds exist to facilitate other teams winning, by supplying them with some “developed” players.
I call that a big win for Big Bob. Winning. He’s a winner! Just not for us. Sorry, guess we just didn’t understand. Maybe we should have Phil Castellini tell us how lucky we are….again. Us, the poor, stupid fans.
The problem has been with poor or no trades. We have a different GM, we don’t know what to expect, but we can hope. To NOT trade these guys makes NO SENSE. I do hope in the near future we have much bigger payroll, but we also feel like that won’t happen with the lowest net-worth controlling owner in MLB. He is wealthy to say the least, but he is the least wealthy of all the controlling owners. Wish someone in Greater Cincy or Tri-state area could pool together to buy out Castellini or the other owners and force Castellini out in some way. We can dream.
Prospects are fun, but rarely pan out.
If the reds trade Castillo for prospect, it better be for some very, very good prospects.
Consider a decade ago (2013) the Reds’ “Top 5” prospects were: B Hamilton, R Stephenson, Cingrani, D Corcino, and Travieso.
At the time, fans would have decried the Reds for giving up all 5 for a pitcher, even of Castillo’s caliber. Now, giving those 5 guys away for Castillo would be seen as a steal.
Going back over the past decade, only 1 Reds “top 5” prospect has accumulated a career WAR of 11 or more. That was Zack Cozart.
Point is, for every great prospect who becomes Juan Soto, there are many more who become Juan Duran. So a trade of Castillo needs to contain high quality prospects and in good quantity.
realistically, you are not going to get great quality and great quantity. you are setting yourself up for great disappointment. then we can blame the g. m. for our inability to achieve this goal. I think we can hope to get a good major leaguer, or a “sure” grade A prospect and a top 50 prospect for Castillo. He’s a excellent pitcher, but our return won’t be overwhelming. Maybe we should just keep for another year.
You make a great point … midseason trades for prospects may not pan out. We need to look back no further than when the Reds traded Frazier, Cueto and Chapman to see a worst-case outcome–only one player, Adam Duval has enjoyed a prolonged career from that group. What’s different today is that the Reds are in a position to time the trades of Mahle and Castillo better which should yield improved quality of the return.
The way to evaluate the decision is to consider are the Reds better off keeping both players, hoping they stay healthy and productive for the remainder of this season and next and then giving them qualifying offers that yield post first round draft picks, or can they do better via trade? The best outcome is the Reds take advantage of a “sellers” market for starting pitchers and accelerate their rebuild. But like many others here, the fact that we’re back in rebuild mode so soon after just two years of a marginally competitive team is unacceptable.
This is a great post and a helpful one for all the armchair Bull Kralls counting their prospects before they’re hatched.
Don’t water down a trade by attaching a bad contract.
Don’t water down a trade by getting three MOR ‘prospects’ aka: Friedl.
Don’t water down a trade by getting a ‘major league ready’ stiff aka: Fraley.
Even a De La Cruz type isn’t yet certain enough.
Castillo is a sure thing team-changer.
The Reds should settle for nothing less in return.
Doesn’t matter if they don’t pan out more often than not. When they do, you set up the team for improved success for more than half-decade. You have to strike while iron is hot and get value. We might even stumble upon a Hall of Fame player that isn’t even a deal headliner, but you won’t if you don’t trade. We won’t keep Castillo and comp pick will be outside top 30, so hardly better than multiple prospects.
What angers me, knowing the reality of the Reds ownership and payroll, is when they DON’T make a trade soon enough. Keeping Frazier, Chapman, Cueto and others too long when they made NO DIFFERENCE to playoff hopes was, putting it politely, incredible dumb. Afraid to try and get better because a few fans might get upset…sad for us Reds fans.
Wow! I think Bell might have just filled out his best lineup card of the year. It will be interesting to see how this lineup fairs against an old crafty right-hander like Wainwright. Go Reds! I really hate the Cardinals.
The best comp for a Castillo trade is the MIN-TOR trade re Berrios last year. Austin Adams was a #15-36 prospect while Simeon Woods Richardson was a #60+ prospect.
The teams that can provide that duo of prospects that are Buyers are: LAD, SD, BOS and SF. I would imagine that CIN wants one position player and one pitcher. That essentially points to either LAD or SF.
The SF fit is Luciano and Harrison. But does CIN need yet another SS prospect? I realize not all will stick there. There is a need for 3B – unless India slides back over there.
The LAD fit is likely Cartaya or Miller as one piece and then one of Vargas, Busch or Pages. If Stephenson is a planned stick at C, then Miller is the first piece. At point Vargas might be too much and CIN settles for one of Busch or Pages.
I would then hide Miller from whomever in the system that seems to ignore the fact that walks are bad and first pitch strikes significantly increase the possibility of outs.
Still think Moreno-C-Toronto is the main piece coming back for Castillo. Don’t know the rest of their minor league system to say who the other piece will be.
I’m thinking LC has dropped to the 3rd highest rated trade candidate behind Shohei and Soto. The major players will probably be in on these 2 with a haul of players going back to the Angels and Nationals. Unfortunately, the same teams are also looking at LC, so I think nothing will happen until the Shohei and Soto trades are done. Just my opinion, but my picks are Shohei to LAD and Soto to NYY. If that’s the case, SD, SF, BOS, TOR and NYM might become the front runners for the services of LC. Keeping Shohei in LA would be huge for the market and you’ll see an exodus of fans from Angels stadium to Dodgers stadium. The farm systems of both LAD and NYY are loaded with prospects and to have the 2 superstars in the largest markets also benefit MLB. LC traded to the AL is my preference, so we don’t have to face him as often. Of BOS and TOR, I like the prospects that TOR has to offer better. Word is that ATL is also interested in Shohei and may also be in the mix for LC, if the lose out on Shohei. If it is TOR, LC would replace another Castillo(Max) in the starting rotation and that Castillo might be a good choice for one of the pieces coming back to the Reds. He has a low walk rate, BAA and WHIP. In addition, Moreno, Horwitz and Tiedemann would be a great return for LC.
Ha! MCastillo, Moreno, Horwitz and Tiedemann for Luis?
I’d make that trade…..
That would be a china shop worth busting up.
Bull Krall might was well ask.
Haha, I know that’s way too greedy, but doesn’t hurt to ask if you’re Krall. Getting back Moreno and Tiedemann would also be a stretch, but probably more acceptable on their end. If we could get either Horwitz or M. Castillo squeezed in, Reds win.
Moreno and Robberse better lines up with the Berrios trade of last year, but I think LC is a better pitcher, so Tiedemann and either Horwitz or M. Castillo would be fair imo.
If Shohei comes on the market, that will not help the Reds. I tend to think the Angels keep him. Looks more like speculation than actual reporting that he’s available. The Angels are among only a handful of teams that has a legit shot at signing him as a FA and tend to think injuries have done them in more than a lack of talent.
I would be happy with Moreno, Tiedemann and Horwitz for L. Castillo. Toronto needs pitching, so M. Castillo likely means more to them than us.
BK, I agree that it would not benefit the Reds. As much as Shohei means to the Angels, his top priority is to win and the Angels have not been even close to winning the big one since he’s been there. They may not move him in the next 11 days and may think to revisit it in the offseason. He could also be dealt next trade season, but his trade value is the highest now and the return package would probably not be bigger as teams like the Dodgers and Yankees have a stockpile of prospects. If Shohei doesn’t move and Soto and Castillo do, the Angels will have less tip prospects to choose from later. The worst scenario for the Angels is if Shohei reaches FA after next season, after playing on teams that were not playoff competitive. He has stated that he wants to win and would definitely be on the move to an annual contender like the Dodgers or Yankees. His long term goal is to win championships and not being the highest paid player in MLB. I also agree that injuries played a big part in why the Angels are not competitive, but their farm system is weak and cannot support dealing with injuries to the big league club. By contrast, teams like the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Yankees have top level talent knocking on the door over the next year and a half. If the Angels are so sure that they can be players when and if Shohei reaches FA, it would be better to trade him now, get back top quality talent and sign him to a deal after ‘23. The Angels will be a much better team to return to as an option for Shohei. The biggest risk is that the team that gets Shohei in a trade, extends him and the Angels have no chance. I honestly don’t see the Angels being an option for Shohei if he gets to FA.
Major stars with years of control don’t get traded at the deadline. They get traded in the off-season when GMs and owners of clubs have more time to talk. Those trades require lots of discussions due to nature of a $300-400 million contract needing to either be absorbed or committed to soon. Obtain isnt getting traded st the deadline in my humble opinion and I doubt Soto does either.
We still have the most likely too trade targets in Castillo and mahle.
I follow your reasoning viz the Angles and Ohtani….but I think you’re overestimating the Yankees trading depth.
Even the ‘prospects’ they were taking off the table in the Louie Castle rumor mill weren’t anyone I’d be interested in for him.
NY fans and press always over estimate the Evil Empire’s assets.
What you were touting with the Blue Jays is a much richer vein of potentials… but it would take 3 or those 4 for me to feel good about giving away a 1st line starter.
I am not sold on Barrero, but once he starts hitting in AAA, the Reds will need to bring him up and give him a chance. He may turn out to be a star. It may not turn out well. He will have to prove himself.
Barrero has hit well in AAA previously. He just has not hit well for the Reds. I hope it turns out well for him. He is definitely a good athlete.
Agreed. However I would say fair market value is a regular run of the mill trade. The exception here of course is teams trading for him are trying to add lots of insurance for the playoffs and WS. That should demand an overpay. Not a huge one but something significant. Reds owners should know what is at stake. He is the best talent by far that the Reds are willing to trade. Reds fans have had very little to cheer about for quite some time. They are in a rebuild and this will be a large part of how well that rebuild ends up being. If Reds can not get an overpay they should keep him and even entertain the notion of signing him to a 2-3 yr extension. Anything less and shall we politely say most Reds fans will be a tad miffed.
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